How to make better decisions when the data is unclear

The hardest decisions I’ve ever had to make weren’t the ones with too many options or too much disagreement. They were the ones where the data was incomplete, conflicting, or simply didn’t exist. A market we hadn’t entered yet. A cultural problem that didn’t show up in metrics. A fork in the road where both paths were uncertain, but standing still wasn’t an option.

And yet, those were often the moments where a decision mattered most. In real business life, clarity rarely arrives on schedule. We are often expected to act long before we have all the information we want.

Over the years, I’ve had to develop a different kind of decision-making muscle. Not the one that compares dashboards, but the one that listens for patterns, frames uncertainty, and helps teams move even when no one is sure. In this article, I want to share the tools, questions, and stories that have helped me make better decisions when the data couldn’t.

The moment I stopped trusting perfect data

Early in my consulting career, I worked with a retail client preparing to enter the Mexican market. Everything looked promising. Consumer demand was growing. Competitors were scattered. A local partner was eager. But the data itself was patchy. Income statistics were outdated. Customer research was thin. Some insights were extrapolated from entirely different markets.

“We need more clarity,” the COO said.

Six months later, we were still waiting. In that time, a smaller competitor entered the market, signed our partner, and gained early traction.

That project stayed with me. It taught me that waiting for more data can feel responsible, but sometimes it's just a sophisticated way to avoid deciding.

The myth of the clean answer

We are taught to base decisions on evidence. That’s a good instinct. But in practice, some of the most important decisions happen precisely when the evidence is missing, incomplete, or pointing in multiple directions.

I’ve seen this in five common scenarios:

1. When the team is doing something for the first time
2. When the situation is moving faster than the research
3. When different departments interpret the same data differently
4. When the key variable is human behavior, not numbers
5. When the risk is emotional, political, or reputational

In these moments, people don’t need a perfect analysis. They need a way to think clearly, act responsibly, and stay aligned when clarity is unavailable.

How I approach decision-making when the data is unclear

1. Define the real unknown

Most teams don’t start here. They say, “We’re missing information,” but they haven’t asked what kind of information or why it matters.

At one startup, the leadership team delayed a pricing change because they said they needed more user data. But when we unpacked the hesitation, it wasn’t about users at all. It was about internal disagreement on positioning. The missing data was just a proxy for unresolved alignment.

When I feel stuck, I ask:

• What exactly are we unsure about?
• Is this a knowledge gap or a trust issue?
• What do we already know that we’re underusing?

Often, the uncertainty is more emotional than analytical.

2. Ask “what would have to be true?”

Instead of asking, “Do we have enough proof?”, I ask a different question:
What would have to be true for this to work?

This approach shifts the conversation from analysis to possibility. It turns the group into a problem-solving team instead of a committee of skeptics. From there, I ask:

• Are those conditions realistic?
• Can we test or simulate them?
• What could we observe in the next few weeks that might help?

This reframing often unlocks options that weren’t visible when we were stuck on finding the right answer.

3. Use a premortem

A premortem is one of the simplest tools I use. Before we commit, I gather the team and ask:
Imagine it’s six months from now. This decision failed. Why did it fail?

This exercise brings out hidden fears, overlooked risks, and structural weaknesses that would never show up in a typical planning session.

In one case, a regional expansion plan seemed solid. But in the premortem, a junior team member said, “We’ll lose momentum if we stretch our operational leaders too thin.” That risk turned out to be real. Naming it early helped us adjust timelines and avoid burnout.

4. Align on purpose, not just data

Sometimes we believe we need more data, but what we actually need is better alignment. If everyone agrees on the goal, the tradeoffs, and the boundaries, you can move forward with less certainty.

I’ve worked with teams who had all the information they needed but were paralyzed by disagreement. And I’ve worked with teams who had very little information but moved forward quickly because they trusted each other’s intent.

Ask your team:

• What matters most in this decision: speed, precision, or control?
• What risks are we willing to take?
• What outcome are we trying to avoid above all else?

Once those answers are aligned, the path usually becomes clearer.

5. Set a boundary, then move

Decisions become overwhelming when we treat them as permanent. They feel lighter and more practical when we treat them as trials with clear boundaries.

At one nonprofit, we were unsure whether to change our grant application process. There were arguments on both sides. Eventually, we agreed:
“We’ll try the new format with one region for two quarters. If we see no improvement in application quality or reviewer time, we’ll revert.”

That decision worked. Not because it was perfect, but because it created motion. It gave the team a sense of progress without locking them in.

A moment that still shapes how I think

During a cultural transformation project at a professional services firm, we were advising the leadership team on how to respond to deep but unspoken tension across departments. The internal data was mixed. Some surveys showed satisfaction. Others showed frustration. The conversations were cautious. No one was sure what the truth was.

Then the CEO said,
“The data doesn’t all agree, but the pattern feels real.”

That gave everyone permission to act. We launched a feedback initiative, started team listening sessions, and restructured internal communications. Some of it worked. Some of it needed adjustment. But what mattered was that we stopped waiting.

Final reflections

The more time I’ve spent in business, the more I’ve realized that clarity is rare. The best leaders are not the ones who always have the right answer. They’re the ones who can move with intention even when they don’t.

Better decisions don’t always come from more data. They come from sharper framing, honest conversation, thoughtful testing, and shared purpose.

The next time you feel stuck waiting for more proof, ask yourself: What would have to be true for us to act? And what’s one small step we can take now?

Decision-making checklist when the data is unclear

Before your next big call, try this:

✅ What exactly are we uncertain about?
✅ What would have to be true for this to work?
✅ What small test or proxy could we try first?
✅ What are we most afraid of - and have we named it?
✅ Are we aligned on the goal and the risk tolerance?
✅ Have we agreed on when and how to revisit this decision?

If you’ve answered most of these, you may not have perfect data - but you’re not stuck either.

And that, in most cases, is enough to move forward.